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Series examines advances in economic forecasting

Sept. 15, 2009

KALAMAZOO--The most recent advances in predicting economic disruptions will be explored during the 2009-10 Werner Sichel Lecture Series, beginning Wednesday, Sept. 16, at Western Michigan University.

Now in its 46th year, the speaker series will bring six nationally and internationally recognized economists to the WMU campus to discuss some of the latest techniques used to forecast economic fluctuations. All Sichel Series presentations are from 3 to 4:30 p.m. on Wednesdays in Room 3512 (fall semester) and Room 3508 (spring semester) of Knauss Hall and are free and open to the public.

Wednesday, Sept. 16
Dr. Dean Croushore, "Real-Time Forecasting"

The series leads off Wednesday with a presentation by Dr. Dean Croushore, professor of economics and the Rigsby Fellow at the University of Richmond, where he also is chair of the economics department. Croushore is also a visiting scholar in the Real-Time Data Research Center at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and will address the topic "Real-Time Forecasting" in his WMU presentation.

Croushore's research in recent years has focused on forecasting and how data revisions affect monetary policy, forecasting and macroeconomic research. Croushore earned his doctoral degree from Ohio State University in 1984, then joined the faculty at Penn State University.

From 1989 to 2003, Croushore was a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. As vice president and head of the macroeconomics research group at the Philadelphia Fed, his responsibilities included briefing the bank president before FOMC meetings, managing a macroeconomics group of five economists and five research assistants, writing articles for Business Review, giving speeches, forecasting, briefing the board of directors and running the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Livingston Survey.

Croushore is an associate editor of the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, International Journal of Forecasting and Empirical Economics. He is author of the textbook "Money and Banking: A Policy-Oriented Approach" and co-author with Andrew B. Abel and Ben S. Bernanke of "Macroeconomics," sixth edition. His research has appeared in such professional publications as the Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Review of Economics and Statistics and Southern Economic Journal.

The Sichel Series is organized by the WMU Department of Economics and named in honor of longtime WMU economics professor, Dr. Werner Sichel, who retired in 2004. The series is cosponsored by the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

2009-10 Werner Sichel Lecture Series

  • Sept. 30--Dr. Kajal Lahiri, Distinguished Professor of Economics and Health Policy Management at State University of New York-Albany, "Limits to Economic Forecasting."

  • Nov. 4--Dr. David Rapach, associate professor of economics and research economist at the Simon Center for Regional Forecasting at Saint Louis University, "Forecasting Regional and Industry-Level Variables: Challenges and Strategies."

  • Feb. 10--Dr. Dennis Jansen, professor of economics and the Private Enterprise Research Center's Jordan Professor of Public Policy at Texas A&M University, "Forecasting and Asset Prices."

  • March 24--Dr. Herman Stekler, research professor of economics at George Washington University, "Procedures for Evaluating Economic Forecasts, Including Results about Labor Market Predictions."

  • April 7--Dr. Tae-Hwy Lee, professor of economics at University of California-Riverside, "Combining Forecasts with Many Predictors."

This year's series is directed by Dr. Matthew Higgins, WMU associate professor of economics. For more information, contact Higgins at (269) 387-5543 or matthew.higgins@wmich.edu.

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Media contact: Mark Schwerin, (269) 387-8400, mark.schwerin@wmich.edu

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